IN FOCUS: Impact Evaluation

PN 2014-08: Bakit Nagmahal ang Bigas Noong 2013? At Bakit Mahal pa rin? The Continuing Saga of Rice Self-Sufficiency in the Philippines
by Roehlano M. Briones and Ivory Myka R. Galang

The rice price spike experienced in the third quarter of 2013 alarmed the public. Speculations spread about the cause of the spike, the most prevalent of which was hoarding by private traders. Rice cartels were also blamed for price manipulation. These cartels were perceived to be conniving with rice smugglers in an unholy alliance.

It is easy to blame rice traders and smugglers for price manipulation, but it is another thing to produce evidence for this accusation. This Policy Note is the outcome of a study on the actual state of rice supply in the country. It looks into the rice price spike in 2013 by taking a different approach instead of subscribing to the notion of secret conspiracies. The alternative explanation taken by the study invokes nothing more than supply and demand. It holds the view that the inadequacy of supply starting from mid-2013 can be attributed to the reduction in imports due to government policy. Such reduction was neither compensated for by a commensurate increase in domestic production nor by a timely release from the buffer stock. Click here for the full article.

PN 2014-07: Formulating the Philippine Services Strategy for Inclusive Growth
by Ramonette B. Serafica

Competitive services are necessary for inclusive growth. Services directly contribute to job creation and value added in the economy and affect the performance of other sectors through critical inter-sectoral linkages. Improving the competitiveness of all services is thus essential to transform the economy and achieve broad-based growth. However, there are still vast opportunities left untapped to fully exploit the sector’s role in the economy. This Policy Note explains why a Philippine services strategy is essential to maximize the sector’s potential in contributing to the attainment of inclusive growth. Click here for the full article.

PN 2014-06: A Profile of Graduate Education Programs in the Philippines
by Mira Alexis P. Ofreneo

In 2013, the Commission on Higher Education (CHED) Task Force on Graduate Education called for an assessment of the state of graduate education programs in the Philippines. This assessment produced a comprehensive report on the state of graduate education programs in the country based on available CHED databases. This Policy Note presents some of the highlights of the report focusing on enrollment and graduation data in the master’s and doctoral programs for school year 2011-2012. Click here for the full article.

PN 2014-05:    Reviewing Quality Assessment Tools for Graduate Education
by Mira Alexis P. Ofreneo

In 2013, the Commission on Higher Education (CHED) Task Force on Graduate Education assessed the state of graduate education programs in the Philippines. The assessment included a review of quality assessment (QA) tools used in different countries to determine how the quality of graduate education is being assessed. This review is in line with the objective of CHED to develop its own QA tool for Philippine graduate education. This Policy Note discusses some of the highlights of this review and looks at what the QA tools for higher education are really measuring. Click here for the full article

PN 2014-04:    Big Data for Measuring Progress and Development: Big Insights or Big Issues?
by Jose Ramon G. Albert

“Big Data” has become a buzzword in business, technology, and science, taking over the hype from “Data Mining” and other similar terms about the use of information from huge databases. Big Data are thought of as various digital data by-products from electronic devices, social media, search engines, as well as sensors and tracking devices (including climate sensors and global positioning system). They are characterized by 3Vs: (high) volume, velocity, and variety.

This Policy Note provides basic information on Big Data and how they compare with traditional data sources of official statistics. Taking note of their limitations, the possible developmental uses in the Philippines of this nontraditional data source are explored, such as in disaster risk management. It also discusses privacy, analytics, and other issues that could lead to the misuse of big data. Click here for the full article

DP 2014-23: Small Farmers in High Value Chains: Binding or Relaxing Constraints to Inclusive Growth?
by Roehlano M. Briones

Linking small farmers to modern markets, whether domestically or for export, increasingly entails participation in modern supply chains coordinated by contract farming. Concerns have been raised regarding the possible disadvantages from contract farming facing small farmers. Most of the empirical work points to a positive correlation between participation in contract farming and net farm income. Such a correlation fails to correct for endogeneity of participation; few studies have performed multivariate analysis with such a correction.

This case study, based on a survey of smallholders in the tobacco industry, seems to be the first such application for the Philippines. The study finds that, correcting for endogeneity, participation in contract farming causes a sizable increase in farm profitability; moreover, participation appears to be biased toward smaller farm sizes. The findings are robust to the econometric method used and even definition of participation. This is further evidence to confirm that supply chains linking agribusiness with small farmers via contract schemes are a viable model of value addition and inclusive growth in rural areas. Policies should be implemented to support an enabling environment for expansion of supply chains. Click here for the full article

DP 2014-22: Formulating the Philippine Services Strategy for Inclusive Growth
by Ramonette B. Serafica

The paper looks at the role of services in the economy and discusses why competitive services are necessary for achieving inclusive growth. An overview of Philippine services sectors is first presented, highlighting their economic contribution as well as performance. This is followed by a discussion of the country’s record in services trade particularly in exports. It suggests that a comprehensive and high-profile services export initiative is needed to establish the Philippines as the heart of services trade in the Asia-Pacific region. Restrictions on the supply of services are then examined to have a better understanding of the general environment under which services are provided.

Because regulatory and nonregulatory measures undermine the efficient supply of services, it is recommended that a trade-related audit of the laws and regulations affecting services be conducted with the view of removing those laws and regulations whose policy objectives are no longer relevant or could be achieved by less restrictive measures. In addition to improving the trade and investment environment, other policy areas are also important and these are highlighted in the concluding section, which presents the elements of a strategic framework to harness services for inclusive growth. Click here for the full article

DP 2014-21: Implications of an EU FTA to the Philippine Labor Market
by Leonardo A. Lanzona, Jr.

The Philippines is currently negotiating a free trade agreement (FTA) with the European Union (EU). This paper is expected to shed light on these negotiations in terms of the possible effects of the FTA on the employment, in particular. Conceptually, the effects of the FTA on the labor market may come from two sources. The first is the intensification of free trade which can either be an opportunity or a threat to the workers, depending on whether the trading of goods and services are complementary or substitutable to the goods and services produced in the country. The second source is the proposed set of core labor standards which the EU can impose given the previous FTAs it had forged with other countries. These standards can result in the country becoming less competitive.

Analyzing the experience of the country with its previous FTAs with the ASEAN and Japan, the paper found that FTAs as a whole have a positive impact on employment. While there may be unemployment caused by the entry of more imports from other countries, the effect of the trade commitments found in FTAs is essentially to mitigate such negative effects. It is then proposed that the country negotiate within the same rules and standards set in their previous FTAs and that appropriate taxes and subsidies be imposed to counteract the negative effects of changes in trade and labor standards. Click here for the full article

"Big Data" pose opportunities and challenges to PHL

Various digital data by-products from electronic devices, social media, search engines, sensors, and tracking devices (including climate sensors and global positioning systems or GPS)- also known as Big Data - have developmental uses.

A paper by Dr. Jose Ramon Albert, senior research fellow of state think tank Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS), stressed that Big Data can complement traditional data sources in relation to the government's national development plans and disaster-risk management goals. Read more

High TB cases due to delayed patient diagnosis, says PIDS-DOH study

A recent study of state think tank Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) and the Department of Health (DOH) reveals that the leading cause of high tuberculosis (TB) cases in urban poor communities is the patient's delayed visit to the doctor.

Titled "Barriers of Early TB Diagnosis among the Poor in Highly Urbanized Areas in the Philippines", the study noted that although there is a significant drop in TB prevalence over the last decade, TB remains the fourth leading cause of mortality among Filipinos. The 2007 Philippine National Tuberculosis Prevalence Survey revealed that there are approximately three TB cases for every 1,000 Filipinos. Moreover, the DOH confirmed that there is a prevalence of the multidrug-resistance TB in the country, a fatal form. Read more

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