POLICY NOTE

PN 2020-06: Answering Critical Questions on Small-scale Mining
in the Philippines
by Ludwig John H. Pascual, Sonny N. Domingo, and Arvie Joy A. Manejar

This Policy Note revisits the Philippine small-scale mining and its promise in ensuring employment and economic opportunities. Among others, it finds that informality besets the small-scale mining sector. Behind this problem are several institutional, regulatory, and social issues confronting the sector and its stakeholders. For instance, the study reveals that its regulatory boards are not representative of key stakeholders that can positively contribute to the development of small-scale mining. Moreover, enforcement of mining laws has become an avenue for extortion by scrupulous government personnel. To date, child labor also pervades the sector. To address these concerns, the study recommends the formalization of the small-scale mining sector through the implementation of a national research program, sector profiling, and stakeholder analysis. It also calls for the balancing of the composition of regulatory boards to allow more stakeholder representation. It also urges the enhancement and strict implementation of the People's Small-scale Mining Program as indicated in the Small-scale Mining Act. Click here to download the policy note.

DISCUSSION PAPERS

DP 2020-17: Agricultural Employment and the Rural Household: A Characterization
for Selected Provinces in the Philippines
by Roehlano M. Briones

This study aims to address a gap in existing data and literature regarding the socioeconomic profile of agricultural workers within rural households. It implemented a survey collecting panel data on the full range of labor and economic activities of rural households with agricultural workers, including patterns of employment and seasonality, other relevant worker and household characteristics, and the community-level context. A socioeconomic profile of rural and agricultural workers was developed. Statistical analysis confirmed that individuals of working age are more likely to become an agricultural worker if they are male, older, less educated, and are in a barangay with better rural infrastructure and more remote from the urban center. Moreover, weekly working hours for agricultural workers is greater for younger workers, for those that are better educated, and for those in barangays nearer the urban center. Several implications for policy and further research were stated. Click here to download the publication.

DP 2020-16: PIDS-BSP Annual Macroeconometric Model for the Philippines: Preliminary Estimates
and Ways Forward
by Celia M. Reyes, Connie G. Bayudan-Dacuycuy, Michael Ralph M. Abrigo, Francis Mark A. Quimba, Nicoli Arthur B. Borrommeo, Lora Kryz C. Baje, Sylwyn C. Calizo Jr., Zhandra C. Tam, and Gabriel Iñigo M. Hernandez

Given new programs and policies in the Philippines, there is a need to formulate a macroeconometric model (MEM) to gain more insights on how the economy and its sectors are affected. This paper discusses the estimation of an annual MEM for policy analysis and forecasting with respect to the opportunities and challenges brought about by new developments. The formulation of an annual MEM is useful in assisting major macroeconomic stakeholder, such as the National Economic and Development Authority and the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) in their conduct of policy simulations, macroeconomic surveillance, and economic analysis. Given this backdrop, the Philippine Institute for Development Studies and the BSP have collaborated to estimate an annual MEM, which has four blocks, namely, the real sector, fiscal sector, trade sector, and monetary sector. Using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag model approach, these sectors are modeled separately although the linkages with each other are specified. These sectoral models are then put together and a test on the predictive accuracy of the overall model was also performed. Some ways to further improve the annual MEM are also provided. Click here to download the publication.

DP 2020-15: Projected Disease Transmission, Health System Requirements, and Macroeconomic Impacts
of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the Philippines
by Michael Ralph M. Abrigo, Jhanna Uy, Nel Jason Haw, Valerie Gilbert T. Ulep, and Kris Francisco-Abrigo

The novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a global pandemic that has infected at least 1.2 million people and caused more than 67,000 deaths worldwide. The Philippines has recorded 3,764 confirmed cases and 177 deaths as of April 7, 2020 and has implemented an enhanced Luzon-wide enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) from March 17 to April 30 in attempts to limit population movement and curb the spread of the epidemic. Based on the disease transmission model, it is projected that aggressive efforts in the post-ECQ period to isolate at least 70 percent of infectious cases through better contact tracing, social distancing, individual or household isolation, and reduced delays in time to seek care for symptomatic cases are necessary to suppress the outbreak. The COVID-19 epidemic is expected to affect not only the country's health system but also the economy. Projections based on a Leontief input-output model suggest that the Philippine economy may lose between 276.3 billion (best case) and PHP 2.5 trillion (worse case) due to COVID-19. Extending the ECQ by one more month may potentially cost the Philippine economy at least PHP 150 billion due to possible declines in household consumption as workers remain unemployed for longer periods. Click here to download the publication.

DP 2020-14: Barriers to Application of Weather and Climate Information
in Smallholder Vegetable Farming in Benguet
by Sonny N. Domingo, Adrian D. Agbon, Ma. Divina C. Olaguera, Anna Jennifer L. Umlas, Katrina Mae C. Zuluaga,
and Celia M. Reyes

Benguet province's comparative advantage in the cultivation of high-value crops, such as cabbage, carrots, and potatoes, are evident in the high volume of production experienced year on year. This may be attributed to the province's favorable weather and climate. Climate change, however, may threaten the stability of mountain farming systems in the coming years if no proper measures for adaptation are put in place. This paper aims to understand the current barriers to the access and use of weather and climate information in agricultural decisionmaking as a means to cope with the changing climate. Study finds that, while farmers see the value of using weather and climate information, there is a lack of localized weather and climate information applicable to the microclimate of Benguet. The provision of information must also be supported with other interventions, such as access to low cost credit, to provide the other lacking resources farmers need to enact the optimal decision alternative. Click here to download the publication.

DP 2020-13: Analysis of the 2020 President's Budget
by Janet S. Cuenca

The government budget reflects the government's spending priorities. It is deemed important to assess whether the priorities as outlined in the proposed 2020 President's Budget are consistent with the policy pronouncements of the current administration. In this light, the study examines whether budget allocation is consistent with the priorities that the government identified in its various policy pronouncements. It also evaluates the overall fiscal picture as projected in the proposed budget and its consistency with the macroeconomic assumptions. In addition, it examines the national revenue program, which together with the national expenditure program, indicates the overall fiscal health in 2020. The budget analysis indicates the high spending priority given to social services sector and economic services sector that is consistent with the policy pronouncements of the government. Nevertheless, the budget cut in the health sector needs further inquiry. Click here to download the publication.

DP 2020-12: Developing Rapid Climate Decision Analysis Tool in Small-holder High-Value Crop Farming
in Atok, Benguet
by Sonny N. Domingo, Anna Jennifer L. Umlas, and Katrina Mae C. Zuluaga

This paper discusses collected data and initial results in developing the rapid climate decision analysis tool applicable to smallholder high-value crop farming in Atok, Benguet. The excel-based tool harnesses the knowledge of farmers and agricultural extension workers and aims to aid them in decisionmaking. Information gathered are yields, production costs and prices by crop, season, and amount of rainfall. The paper is part of the project titled, "Action ready climate knowledge to improve disaster risk management for smallholder farmers in the Philippines" that explores, among others, the context faced by farmers in making farm decisions, particularly those that are influenced by weather and climate information. Click here to download the publication.

DP 2020-11: Assessing the Resurgent Irrigation Development Program of the Philippines
- Water Resources Component
by Guillermo Q. Tabios III and Tomas Paulo Z. de Leon

This study assesses the irrigation service areas of Angat-Maasim River Irrigation System (AMRIS) and Pampanga Delta Irrigation Systems (PDRIS) benchmarked against design area water availability, land use (including flood vulnerability), and status of irrigation facilities using resource assessment and watershed and irrigation modeling. The study finds that irrigation area of AMRIS fell below design area due to urbanization, lowered height of Bustos Dam, and further complicated by competing use of water for hydropower. Likewise, the PDRIS system only realized half of the target irrigation service area due to urbanization, flooding, and the low diversion dam height of Cong Dadong Dam. Among others, the study recommends conduct of periodic appraisal or assessment of the efficiency of irrigation water delivery operations through hydraulic model simulations to maintain and upgrade the irrigation facility as needed. Click here to download the publication.

DP 2020-10: Barriers to Application of Weather and Climate Information in Cut Flower Production
in Benguet
by Sonny N. Domingo, Adrian D. Agbon, Ma. Divina C. Olaguera, Anna Jennifer L. Umlas, Katrina Mae C. Zuluaga,
and Celia M. Reyes

The province of Benguet has a competitive advantage in the production of cut flowers because of its unique weather and climate. However, the access to and use of information on weather and climate phenomena in agricultural decisionmaking is not guaranteed despite its provision. This presents a critical issue to examine given that the changing climate situation in the region could adversely affect production and living standards without reliable sources of information for the same. This paper explores the barriers in the applications of weather and climate information to
cut flower production in Atok, Benguet. Study finds that, while barriers also exist on the side of hydrometeorological information producers' dissemination of information, there also exist significant financial, infrastructural, and capacity barriers, such as lack of working capital to implement optimal decision alternatives dictated by adverse weather conditions, the lack of reliable phone service and power to disseminate and access information, and the absence of forecasts that are either translated into the vernacular or laymanized language. Click here to download the publication.

DP 2020-09: Development of Crop Climate Calendars for High-Value Crops in Atok, Benguet:
Report from Preliminary Co-Learning and Co-Development Engagements with Agricultural Stakeholders
in Benguet Province
by Sonny N. Domingo, Anna Jennifer L. Umlas, and Katrina Mae C. Zuluaga

Crop climate calendars augment traditional crop calendars not only by specifying planting and harvest schedules but also by describing phenological states, cultivation practices, and weather and climate requirements that any crop faces throughout a cropping season. The case to document this information in Benguet is compelling. The mountainous province experiences a unique microclimate and phenomena, such as frost and hail, and derives income from the cultivation of high-value crops, such as carrots, cabbage, and potatoes, amid this. Focus group discussions with the municipal agriculturalists and farmer leaders in Atok, Benguet were conducted to understand their experiences and, from there, construct their crop climate calendar. The calendars produced in this exercise may serve as a solid foundation for the analysis of the community's climate-sensitive agricultural decisions. Click here to download the publication.

DP 2020-08: Assessing the Resurgent Irrigation Development Program of the Philippines
- Institutional Arrangements for Irrigation Governance
by Agnes C. Rola, Therese R. Olviga, Francis John F. Faderogao, and Chrislyn Joanna P. Faulmino

This project aims to evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of the government's irrigation program. It focuses on technical, physical, and institutional aspects of performance of both national (NIS) and communal irrigation systems (CIS), and selected case studies. The governance component describes and analyzes the governance mechanisms of the entire irrigation project cycle from planning to monitoring and evaluation. It draws on the findings from the other studies within this project, while focusing on governance, particularly higher-level issues cutting across national and communal systems and also across the other water sector agencies. Results of the study validated that the country's irrigation development plan is fragmented both vertically and horizontally. Respondents from the national agencies all agreed that an integrated irrigation development plan is needed. Recommendations include the establishment of water resource and research centers in academes to have a central body for data storage and analysis. An apex body to harmonize policies and programs across the water sector will also be ideal. Click here to download the publication.

DP 2020-07: The Community-Based Monitoring System (CBMS) as a Local Planning Tool:
Results from the PIDS-DILG Baseline Study on Policy and Governance Gaps for the Local Government Support Fund Assistance to Municipalities (LGSF-AM) Program
by Charlotte Justine Diokno-Sicat, Catharine E. Adaro, and Ricxie B. Maddawin

The study examines the use of Community-Based Monitoring System (CBMS) as a tool in drafting the local Comprehensive Development Plan (CDP). By understanding the current planning process, areas for improvement could be identified to improve local development planning, which will then lead to more efficient use of scarce public resources. Results of a nationwide survey of 1,373 municipalities show that majority of municipalities use CBMS, not just for ecological profiling in development planning but also for budget preparations and priority setting. Local governments allocate funds for CBMS data collection (primarily to hire data enumerators), but not regularly so. Furthermore, there was evidence that there could be improved utilization of existing CBMS data and indicators. These results seem to suggest that municipal development planning practices generally follow the Department of the Interior and Local Government-prescribed development planning and recognize the importance of this being evidence-based. Likewise, some areas for improvement include reorientation of local planners with the CBMS and regular updating of development indicators for more relevant and impactful development policies. Click here to download the publication.

PH services sector scores significant growth in employment, says PIDS

The employment rate in the country’s services sector grew significantly, a study of state think tank Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) said.

Based on their analysis of the Labor Force Survey results for the period 2012-2018, PIDS Senior Research Fellow Ramonette Serafica and Research Analyst Jean Colleen Vergara found that employment in the services sector leaped by 21.4 percent, which was significantly higher than the 11.13-percent increase in the country’s total employment.

“Services are embodied in goods production, either as inputs (such as design, marketing, or distribution costs included in the value of a good) or as trade enablers (such as logistics services or ecommerce platforms),” the authors said. READ MORE

Gov't incentives can drive MSMEs to innovate--PIDS study

Financial support from government influences the decision of MSMEs to undertake organizational and marketing innovation. This is according to a study published by state think tank Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) based on data from the 2015 Survey of Innovation Activities of Establishments.
 
The authors of the study, PIDS Senior Research Fellow Francis Mark Quimba and PIDS Supervising Research Specialist Maureen Ane Rosellon, said that with government incentives, the likelihood of MSMEs undertaking organizational innovation increases by 18 percent and marketing innovation by 15 percent.
 
Though statistically insignificant, they noted a positive effect on product innovation but a negative effect on process innovation. READ MORE

JPEPA has slight impact on PH export--PIDS study

The Japan-Philippines Economic Partnership Agreement or JPEPA had minimal impacts on the growth of Philippine exports after more than a decade of enforcement.

This was according to a study published by state think tank Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) that looked at the effects of JPEPA on Philippine exports to Japan. Using the synthetic control method (SCM), the study assessed the counterfactual of Philippine exports to Japan to get an idea of how it would have performed if the JPEPA had not been implemented.

Entered into force in December 2008, the JPEPA is an economic agreement between Japan and the Philippines to facilitate and promote free transborder flow of goods and services, capital, and people across the two countries. READ MORE

PH must isolate 70% of infectious cases post-ECQ to suppress COVID-19 outbreak--PIDS study

The Philippine government needs to be able to isolate 70 percent of symptomatic cases of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) if it wants to further push the peak of the pandemic and ease the burden on the country’s health system.

This is according to the latest study of state think tank Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) titled, “Projected disease transmission, health system requirements, and macroeconomic impacts of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the Philippines”. The paper is authored by PIDS Senior Research Fellow Michael Abrigo, PIDS Supervising Research Specialist Jhanna Uy, PIDS Research Fellow Valerie Gilbert Ulep, and PIDS consultants Nel Jason Haw and Kris Francisco-Abrigo. READ MORE

COVID-19 may cost PH economy up to PHP2.5 trillion pesos--PIDS study

The Philippines may suffer economic losses between PHP 276.3 billion and PHP 2.5 trillion due to the coronavirus pandemic, a study of state think tank Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) titled “Projected disease transmission, health system requirements, and macroeconomic impacts of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the Philippines” revealed.

The most hit sectors include manufacturing (PHP 82.1 to PHP 855.2 billion), wholesale and retail trade (PHP 93.2 to PHP 724.8 billion), transport, storage, and communication because of expected declines in tourism (PHP 11.7 to PHP 124.3 billion), and other services (PHP 41.5 to PHP 356.9 billion). READ MORE

APEC's influence on PH gov't policies minimal--PIDS study

The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) has a weak influence in shaping the policies of the Philippine government.

This was according to an online perception survey conducted by Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) Senior Research Fellow Francis Mark Quimba and Research Specialist Sylwyn Calizo.

The survey was undertaken to measure the awareness level of stakeholders about APEC, assess their perception on its importance, influence, and relevance to the Philippines, and gather their insights on how they envision APEC and the Philippines post-2020. READ MORE

PIDS to gov't: Craft policies and programs for unpaid work

A study of state think tank Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) called on government to craft policies and programs that will give value to the unpaid work of Filipino men and women.

Unpaid work may refer to housework, home production, nonmarket work, or those pertaining to reproductive roles.

PIDS Senior Research Fellow Connie Dacuycuy in her paper, “Why and how should we value unpaid work?”, noted that a large percentage of primed-aged (25-59 years old) men and women in the country are not looking for market jobs because they are tied up with housework. READ MORE

Reform domestic regulations to improve Filipino professionals' labor mobility
in ASEAN--PIDS study

Filipino professionals may not fully benefit from the mutual recognition arrangements (MRA) established by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) due to the strict domestic regulations among ASEAN member-states.

This is according to a policy note published by the Philippine Institute for Development Studies. MRAs are “framework arrangements directed to liberalize trade in services, increase mobility of skilled labor, and promote best practices on standards and qualifications”.

Among the benefits of MRAs identified by the study include the improvement in human and knowledge capital, as well as the enhancement of social capital that can help advance human resource development of ASEAN member-states. READ MORE

Tap private sector to address untimely immunization in PH--PIDS study

A large number of Filipino children have untimely vaccination, a study of state think tank Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) revealed.

PIDS Research Fellow Valerie Gilbert Ulep and Supervising Research Specialist Jhanna Uy, authors of the research paper “Too Early, Too Late: Timeliness of Child Vaccination in the Philippines”, examined the immunization coverage and the extent of timely vaccination among Filipino children in the last 25 years, particularly from 1993 to 2017, using six rounds of the National Demographic and Health Survey, a nationally representative household survey.

Specifically, they looked into the routine basic immunization given to children, which include Bacillus Calmette-Guerin, Oral Polio Vaccine, Diphtheria Pertussis and Tetanus (DPT), and measles vaccines.
READ MORE

POLICY ISSUE AT A GLANCE

Life After College: How Are Our Graduates Doing?

How are graduates of Philippine higher education institutions (HEIs) doing after graduation? Do the knowledge and skills they learned in college made them employable? Are their jobs relevant to their degrees? How did their college experience influence their socio-political participation and life satisfaction?

This infographic, which is based on the results of a graduate tracer survey conducted by the Philippine Institute for Development Studies and the Commission on Higher Education, shows the relationship between college experience and post-college life including labor market and socio-political participation. It also outlines some issues and recommendations for the higher education sector.

This infographic is based on the PIDS Discussion Paper titled “Philippine Graduate Tracer Study 4” written by Melba V. Tutor (consultant), Aniceto C. Orbeta Jr. (senior research fellow), and James Matthew Miraflor (consultant).

To view in actual size, visit the PIDS website or the PIDS Facebook page.

FACT FRIDAY

K-12 in the Philippines: Job Prospects for SHS Graduates

Here's our #PIDSFactFriday video on the job prospects for senior high school graduates and the willingness of firms to hire them.

This Fact Friday is based on PIDS Discussion Paper Series No. 2018-49 titled
“Senior High School and the Labor Market: Perspectives of Grade 12 Students and Human Resource Officers” written by Aniceto Orbeta Jr., Marites Lagarto, Ma. Kristina Ortiz, Danica Aisa Ortiz, and Maropsil Potestad. The authors are senior research fellow, consultant, senior research specialist, former supervising research specialist, and research analyst, respectively, at the PIDS.

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